{"id":142514,"date":"2026-10-15T11:42:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T09:42:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=142514"},"modified":"2026-10-15T11:44:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T09:44:07","slug":"aie-les-marches-du-diesel-sous-forte-tension","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=142514","title":{"rendered":"AIE : Les march\u00e9s du diesel sous forte tension"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u2019Agence Internationale de l\u2019Energie vient de publier, le 14 Octobre 2026, son actualisation du march\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. La plus grande constatation est que l’escalade des attaques menace de compromettre la reprise des exportations de p\u00e9trole du Moyen-Orient.<\/a><\/p>\n

Selon le rapport, la demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait chuter de 2,5 millions de barils par jour (Mb\/j) au quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2026 et de 2,6 Mb\/j en moyenne en 2026. La guerre en Iran, qui se traduit par une disponibilit\u00e9 restreinte des produits p\u00e9troliers, une flamb\u00e9e des prix des carburants et une d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration des perspectives \u00e9conomiques, entra\u00eenera une baisse de 25 % pour le diesel. Une reprise partielle, de l’ordre de 2 Mb\/j, ram\u00e8nera la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole en 2027 \u00e0 620 000 barils par jour (kb\/j), soit 0,6 %, en dessous des niveaux de 2025.<\/p>\n

L’offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole a augment\u00e9 de 2,5 millions de barils par jour (Mb\/j) en septembre, pour atteindre 102,3 Mb\/j, sous l’impulsion des producteurs du Golfe. La hausse de 2,1 Mb\/j pour les pays membres de l’OPEP+ est principalement due \u00e0 l’Arabie saoudite, tandis que les \u00c9mirats arabes unis ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la croissance des pays non membres de l’OPEP+. L’offre de p\u00e9trole devrait conna\u00eetre un recul annuel moyen de 5,8 Mb\/j cette ann\u00e9e, pour s’\u00e9tablir \u00e0 100,7 Mb\/j, avant de s’inverser et de progresser de 7,7 Mb\/j en 2027. La reprise, fragilis\u00e9e par la recrudescence des attaques dans le Golfe, reste toutefois incertaine.<\/p>\n

La production mondiale des raffineries devrait atteindre un plancher saisonnier de 81,3 millions de barils par jour (mb\/j) en octobre, avant de rebondir \u00e0 84,6 mb\/j d’ici la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Les co\u00fbts record du fret et du p\u00e9trole brut ont fortement r\u00e9duit les marges en Europe et en Asie, tandis que les prix r\u00e9duits des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res ont propuls\u00e9 les marges am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 des niveaux records. La production mondiale devrait diminuer de 2,3 mb\/j cette ann\u00e9e, pour s’\u00e9tablir \u00e0 81,7 mb\/j, avant d’augmenter de 2,8 mb\/j en 2027.<\/p>\n

Les march\u00e9s du diesel sont rest\u00e9s sous forte tension, les perturbations prolong\u00e9es de l’approvisionnement ayant contraint les pays \u00e0 effectuer des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements sur les stocks \u00e0 contre-saison avant les travaux de maintenance des raffineries \u00e0 l’automne et le pic de la demande hivernale. Les exportations mondiales de diesel ont diminu\u00e9 de 700 kb\/j en septembre par rapport \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, la baisse de 1,3 mb\/j en provenance de Russie et du Moyen-Orient n’ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 que partiellement compens\u00e9e par une offre plus importante d’autres sources.<\/p>\n

Les stocks mondiaux de p\u00e9trole observ\u00e9s ont l\u00e9g\u00e8rement diminu\u00e9 de 10 millions de barils en septembre, la baisse de 113 millions de barils des stocks terrestres ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 en grande partie compens\u00e9e par une forte augmentation des stocks maritimes. Les stocks de brut des pays non membres de l’OCDE ont chut\u00e9 de 76 millions de barils, la Chine contribuant \u00e0 hauteur de 78 % \u00e0 cette baisse, tandis que les stocks des pays de l’OCDE ont diminu\u00e9 de 37 millions de barils. Les stocks mondiaux \u00e9taient inf\u00e9rieurs de 509 millions de barils (soit -2,4 millions de barils par jour) \u00e0 leur niveau de fin f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n

Le prix du p\u00e9trole brut de la mer du Nord a bondi de 26,17 $\/baril par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent pour atteindre 116,89 $\/baril en septembre, en raison de la reprise des hostilit\u00e9s au Moyen-Orient qui a perturb\u00e9 l’approvisionnement et incit\u00e9 les raffineurs asiatiques \u00e0 acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer leurs achats. L’attentat \u00e0 la bombe perp\u00e9tr\u00e9 le 11 septembre contre l’ol\u00e9oduc est-ouest saoudien et la hausse exponentielle des taux de fret ont accentu\u00e9 cette flamb\u00e9e. Au moment de la r\u00e9daction de cet article, le brut se n\u00e9gociait autour de 134 $\/baril.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019Agence Internationale de l\u2019Energie vient de publier, le 14 Octobre 2026, son actualisation du march\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. La plus grande constatation est que l’escalade des attaques menace de compromettre la reprise des exportations de p\u00e9trole du Moyen-Orient. Selon le rapport, la demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait chuter de 2,5 millions de barils par jour (Mb\/j) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":142516,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-142514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie"],"yoast_head":"\nAIE : Les march\u00e9s du diesel sous forte tension - L'expert Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=142514\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AIE : Les march\u00e9s du diesel sous forte tension\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u2019Agence Internationale de l\u2019Energie vient de publier, le 14 Octobre 2026, son actualisation du march\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. La plus grande constatation est que l’escalade des attaques menace de compromettre la reprise des exportations de p\u00e9trole du Moyen-Orient. 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