{"id":140189,"date":"2026-04-27T13:38:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:38:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=140189"},"modified":"2026-04-27T13:38:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T11:38:05","slug":"aie-rapport-davril-2026-choc-petrolier-mondial-sans-precedent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=140189","title":{"rendered":"AIE \u2013 Rapport d’Avril 2026 : Choc p\u00e9trolier mondial sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent"},"content":{"rendered":"

Demande mondiale : une contraction historique<\/strong>
\nL’Agence Internationale de l’\u00c9nergie (AIE) pr\u00e9voit, dans son bulletin d’avril 2026, une baisse nette de la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole de 80 000 barils par jour (b\/j) sur l’ensemble de l’ann\u00e9e \u2014 une contraction in\u00e9dite depuis la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19.
\nCe chiffre est inf\u00e9rieur de 730 000 b\/j aux pr\u00e9visions publi\u00e9es le mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, r\u00e9v\u00e9lant une d\u00e9gradation rapide des perspectives. Plus pr\u00e9occupant encore, la demande devrait chuter de 1,5 million de barils par jour (Mb\/j) au cours du seul deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2026, ce qui constituerait la plus forte baisse trimestrielle depuis le pic de la pand\u00e9mie.
\nLes premi\u00e8res r\u00e9gions touch\u00e9es sont le Moyen-Orient et l’Asie-Pacifique, notamment pour trois produits cl\u00e9s : le naphta (p\u00e9trochimie), le GPL (usage domestique et industriel) et le k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne (aviation). La contraction devrait s’\u00e9tendre progressivement \u00e0 l’ensemble du globe, \u00e0 mesure que la p\u00e9nurie et la hausse des prix s’installeront dans la dur\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Cause principale : la guerre en Iran, qui a profond\u00e9ment d\u00e9stabilis\u00e9 les perspectives \u00e9conomiques mondiales.<\/p>\n

Offre mondiale : la plus grande perturbation de l’histoire<\/strong>
\nProduction globale
\nL’offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole a chut\u00e9 de 10,1 Mb\/j en mars 2026, pour s’\u00e9tablir \u00e0 97 Mb\/j \u2014 soit la plus grande interruption d’approvisionnement jamais enregistr\u00e9e. Cette chute r\u00e9sulte de deux facteurs combin\u00e9s :<\/p>\n

Des attaques r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9es contre les infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques au Moyen-Orient
\nDes restrictions \u00e0 la navigation dans le d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz, art\u00e8re strat\u00e9gique par laquelle transite une part majeure du p\u00e9trole mondial<\/p>\n

Ventilation de la production<\/strong>
\nGroupeProduction (mars 2026)Variation mensuelleOPEP+42,4 Mb\/j\u22129,4 Mb\/jHors OPEP+54,7 Mb\/j\u22120,77 Mb\/jTotal mondial97,1 Mb\/j\u221210,1 Mb\/j
\n\u00c0 noter : la chute de la production qatarie a effac\u00e9 les gains enregistr\u00e9s au Br\u00e9sil et aux \u00c9tats-Unis.
\nSur l’ensemble de 2026, la production mondiale devrait diminuer en moyenne de 1 Mb\/j, pour s’\u00e9tablir \u00e0 82,9 Mb\/j.<\/p>\n

Raffinage : une capacit\u00e9 mondiale sous pression<\/strong>
\nConfront\u00e9es \u00e0 des p\u00e9nuries de brut, les raffineries du Moyen-Orient et d’Asie ont r\u00e9duit leur activit\u00e9 d’environ 6 Mb\/j en avril 2026, ramenant le d\u00e9bit mondial de raffinage \u00e0 77,2 Mb\/j.
\nLes marges de raffinage ont temporairement bondi, les \u00e9carts de prix sur les distillats moyens (gazole, fioul domestique, k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne) ayant atteint des niveaux records, reflet de la p\u00e9nurie sur les march\u00e9s des produits finis.<\/p>\n

Stocks : une g\u00e9ographie boulevers\u00e9e<\/strong>
\nLa fermeture de facto du d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz a radicalement redistribu\u00e9 les stocks mondiaux :
\nZoneVariation des stocks (mars 2026)Stocks mondiaux (total net)\u221285 millions de barils (Mb)Stocks hors Golfe Persique\u2212205 Mb (\u22126,6 Mb\/j)Stocks flottants au Moyen-Orient+100 Mb (p\u00e9trole brut + produits bloqu\u00e9s)Stocks terrestres au Moyen-Orient+20 MbR\u00e9serves strat\u00e9giques chinoises+40 Mb
\nLes pays hors Golfe Persique subissent un ass\u00e8chement brutal de leurs approvisionnements, tandis que les volumes restent physiquement pi\u00e9g\u00e9s dans la r\u00e9gion du conflit ou stock\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re pr\u00e9ventive par la Chine.<\/p>\n

Prix : la flamb\u00e9e la plus forte de l’histoire<\/strong>
\nLes cours du p\u00e9trole ont enregistr\u00e9 leur plus forte hausse mensuelle jamais observ\u00e9e en mars 2026. Le brut de mer du Nord (Dated Brent) se n\u00e9gocie actuellement autour de 130 dollars le baril, soit +60 dollars par rapport au niveau d’avant-guerre.
\nLes prix au comptant ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les prix \u00e0 terme (backwardation extr\u00eame), signe que la pression sur l’approvisionnement imm\u00e9diat est particuli\u00e8rement s\u00e9v\u00e8re, les raffineurs cherchant \u00e0 tout prix \u00e0 remplacer les cargaisons bloqu\u00e9es en provenance du Golfe.<\/p>\n

Source : AIE, Bulletin mensuel \u2013 Avril 2026 \/ L’Expert<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demande mondiale : une contraction historique L’Agence Internationale de l’\u00c9nergie (AIE) pr\u00e9voit, dans son bulletin d’avril 2026, une baisse nette de la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole de 80 000 barils par jour (b\/j) sur l’ensemble de l’ann\u00e9e \u2014 une contraction in\u00e9dite depuis la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19. Ce chiffre est inf\u00e9rieur de 730 000 b\/j aux […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":140190,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,235],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-140189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-international"],"yoast_head":"\nAIE \u2013 Rapport d'Avril 2026 : Choc p\u00e9trolier mondial sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent - L'expert Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lexpertjournal.net\/fr\/?p=140189\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AIE \u2013 Rapport d'Avril 2026 : Choc p\u00e9trolier mondial sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Demande mondiale : une contraction historique L’Agence Internationale de l’\u00c9nergie (AIE) pr\u00e9voit, dans son bulletin d’avril 2026, une baisse nette de la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole de 80 000 barils par jour (b\/j) sur l’ensemble de l’ann\u00e9e \u2014 une contraction in\u00e9dite depuis la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19. 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